On December 8, 2025, representatives from the Government of Québec presented an update to the Naskapi Nation of Kawawachikamach Band Council on the status of the George River and Leaf River migratory caribou herds. The presentation summarized long-term population trends, recent survey results, changes in herd ranges, and current management and conservation measures based on monitoring conducted during 2024 and 2025.

The George River and Leaf River caribou are distinct populations. Each herd occupies a different range, follows distinct migration patterns, and is managed separately. Conservation measures and harvest decisions are therefore specific to each herd’s population status and geographic range.

Long Term Population Trends in Ungava

Monitoring data show that the combined population of migratory caribou in Ungava increased steadily from the 1960s through the late 1980s and early 1990s, reaching a peak of over one million caribou. Since that peak, the combined population of the George River and Leaf River herds has declined sharply.

Although some short term increases or decreases have occurred in recent years, both herds remain far below historical population levels.

George River Caribou Herd

Historical Distribution and Range Changes

The geographic range of the George River herd expanded during periods of population growth and contracted as the population declined. During the late 1970s through the early 1990s, when the herd was at its largest, caribou occupied a broad area across northern Québec and Labrador. As population numbers fell after the mid 1990s, the herd’s range became progressively smaller.

2024–2025 Range and Migration

During 2024–2025, the annual range of the George River herd was mapped using GPS collar data collected between June 2024 and May 2025. Monitoring and biological assessment were conducted in collaboration with organizations in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Over the past decade, fall migration distances have shortened by more than 100 km. Despite this change, the winter range remains accessible to Inuit, Naskapi, and Innu communities.

2024 Survey Method and Conditions

The 2024 population estimate for the George River herd was produced using a capture–mark–recapture method based on GPS collars. Collared animals were distributed across the herd’s range in Québec and Labrador and were considered representative of the population.

All collars transmitted two GPS locations per day and an individual VHF radio signal. Large groups were well represented; all groups larger than 1,000 animals included more than eight collared caribou.

Survey conditions were described as adequate, with excellent aggregation conditions, regular updates of collared caribou locations, good VHF telemetry conditions, and sufficient fuel caches.

2024 Survey Results

Aerial overflights were conducted on four consecutive days between July 8 and July 11, 2024. The population estimate was based on 29 groups totaling approximately 8,200 caribou counted from photographs.

Of the 65 active collars, 62 were sampled. This included 44 of 45 collared females, representing 98 percent of females, and 13 of 15 collared males, representing 87 percent of males. Larger groups were composed mostly of females and calves.

Photographic analysis allowed precise counts of adults and calves, providing a measure of recruitment a few weeks after calving.

Population Size and Recent Trend

The George River herd was estimated at approximately 8,600 caribou in 2024, with a 90 percent confidence interval. This represents a 19 percent increase compared to the 2022 survey and a 12 percent increase in the adult segmentsince 2022.

Between 2018 and 2024, the adult segment showed an average annual growth rate of approximately 7 percent. Despite this recent increase, the longer term trend remains concerning. Over the past decade, the herd has declined by approximately 40 percent and remains at a very low population level.

For comparison, the population was estimated at approximately 14,200 caribou in 2014.

Management and Conservation

Hunting of the George River herd remains illegal in Newfoundland and Labrador and has been since 2013. In Québec, resolutions continue to recommend a cessation of harvesting by Québec Indigenous communities to promote recovery of the herd.

Governments have committed to maintaining habitat quality in the current range, including protection of calving grounds, maintenance of current and historical migration routes, and limiting or mitigating disturbance within the herd’s range. A new survey is planned for July 2026, pending budget approval.

Leaf River Caribou Herd

Changing Range and Migration Patterns

The Leaf River herd occupies a much larger range than the George River herd. As the population declined, the overall range contracted. Approximately 20 years ago, migrations extended about 350 km further south than they do today.

Caribou migrations vary annually and do not always follow predictable patterns. Fall migrations have been the most variable in recent years and have expanded winter ranges east and southeast over the past two years.

Protected Areas and Habitat Disturbance

Protected areas are established throughout the range of the Leaf River herd in areas of varying intensity of use. Despite these protections, habitat disturbance remains a concern.

Mining exploration has been at a high level in Ungava and Labrador in recent years. Large wildfires in Eeyou Istchee Baie James in 2023 affected portions of the potential winter range, alongside extensive mining activity along the Trans Taïga road.

Monitoring and Summer Range

Approximately 150 caribou are monitored using GPS collars. The 2024–2025 range mapping was based on approximately 78,000 GPS locations.

The quality of summer habitat has a major influence on physical condition, productivity, and survival. Although the population has declined, the extent and location of the 2024 summer range were comparable to the early 2000s, when the herd was overabundant.

A survey attempt during the summer of 2024 was unsuccessful. The survey team confirmed that caribou were widely dispersed across the summer range and that aggregations were rare.

Rutting Period and Winter Range

During the fall of 2024, caribou occupied a large portion of the rutting range used between 2018 and 2023. All collared caribou migrated south of the rutting range in November and reached the winter range by early December.

Since 2018, Leaf River caribou have wintered across a vast area. The winter range expanded further southeast than usual in 2023–2024 and expanded even further in 2024–2025, reaching within less than 100 km of the Québec–Labrador border.

Territories of Primary Interest

The 2024–2025 winter range overlaps to varying degrees with territories of primary interest for Inuit, Cree Inuit, Cree, and Naskapi. The winter range also overlapped with the range of sedentary woodland caribou between December and March.

Fall Classification and Population Trend

Annual fall classification surveys provide information on sex ratios and calf recruitment. Results from 2025 showed a low proportion of calves, continuing the high variability observed since 2016.

Population modeling indicates that the Leaf River herd shifted from a stable to a declining trend after the 2016 survey. Between 2024 and 2025, the population declined by an estimated 12 percent.

This decline was attributed to:

  • Low recruitment of approximately 25 calves per 100 females
  • Moderate survival of females (84 percent) and moderate to low survival of males (78 percent)
  • Natural vital rates accounting for approximately 8 percent of the decline
  • Indigenous harvest mortality arbitrarily estimated at 7,500 caribou, accounting for approximately 4 percent of the decline

Based on projections from the monitoring program, the Leaf River herd is estimated at approximately 136,000 caribou in 2025.

Looking Ahead

Both herds remain under close monitoring. Management decisions continue to rely on aerial surveys, GPS collar data, and demographic analysis. The next major surveys for both herds are planned for 2026, pending funding approval.

The Hunting, Fishing and Trapping Coordinating Committee will host the Ungava Migratory Caribou Workshop from March 24 to 26 in Montréal. The workshop will bring together wildlife management organizations and Indigenous communities that rely on migratory caribou for subsistence.